On October 18, Deutsche Bank released a new report which showed a cautious attitude towards the cardboard industry. Due to the weak supply and demand fundamentals of paperboard, the company downgraded the ratings of International Paper and American Packaging Company (PKG. US) from “hold” to “sell”, and lowered their target prices to US $29 and US $104 respectively. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank maintained the “hold” rating of WestRock (WRK. US).

Deutsche Bank said: “Considering the weak demand and the upcoming capacity increase, we expect the carton price will drop by $100 per ton next year. This will reduce the price of American kraft paper from the current $935 per ton to $835, a drop of 10.7%.”

Deutsche Bank believes that the market has not fully digested its forecast of price decline. For the holders of international paper industry, what Deutsche Bank is particularly interested in is that the dividend of the company in 2024 will face risks.