With the decline of timber production in Central Europe and the suspension of timber imports from Russia, the log and timber trade in Europe will change greatly.

The log market in Europe may be in an important turning period. In the past four years, due to the outbreak of spruce bark beetle, the forests in the region have been widely damaged, resulting in the rapid growth of logging, wood production and log export in a short time. In the Czech Republic and Germany, for example, pest infestation has led to record timber production in the past few years.

From 2017 to 2021, the annual deforestation in Europe increased by more than 15%. In the long run, the rapid growth of log deforestation is unsustainable. The amount of wood destroyed by bark beetles peaked in 2019 and decreased by 5% and 24% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The amount of damaged wood is expected to decline at a rate of 10-20% per year and return to near the previous historical average by 2025.

The surge in log supply is mostly absorbed by domestic sawmills in European countries, accounting for about 60%, and the rest is used to increase the export of sawn timber and pulpwood, accounting for about 40%. The competitive log supply will help the sawmill industry in Europe expand rapidly by taking advantage of the strong wood market in Europe and the world during 2020-2021. In addition, the sawdust and sawdust supply increased by the sawmill, resulting in the simultaneous growth of sawdust particle and panel production.

With the peak of timber harvest, timber exporters and consumers will need to adapt to the reduced supply of cork timber in Europe in the coming years.

Timber production in Europe will decline from the current high output level, and the region may change from a net exporter of logs to a net importer again. In addition, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to sanctions on almost all forest products imported into Europe from Russia and Belarus.

The reduction of timber supply in Europe and the sanctions against Russia and Belarus will affect European industrial production, trade flows and forest product prices for many years to come.

In the future, sawmills will need to re focus on capacity adjustment and small-diameter sawing capacity. The log industry should consider expanding more sources of wood logs, and forest owners will benefit from more intensive forest management.