Toilet paper has become one of many commodities seriously affected by inflation and supply chain disruption. The consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic and the Ukrainian war are also factors affecting the price of toilet paper.

The French newspaper Les Echos reported that toilet paper was an incidental victim of the Ukrainian war? The ban on the export of birch in Russia has led to a surge in demand for pulp. The fiber of birch can make sanitary products softer, and pulp is the main component of toilet paper. The domino effect has come: the roll paper in the shop is not only thinner, but also more expensive.

Since the supply chain was interrupted during the COVID-19 crisis, this kind of daily necessities has been a frequent customer out of stock on the shelves. In 2020, panicked consumers will start to snap up toilet paper, which is the precursor of the crisis. Then, the huge congestion of container ships further disrupted the global flow of wood fibers for paper making.

In March this year, Russia banned the export of birch in retaliation for the sanctions imposed on Putin by the United States and the European Union. Bloomberg estimates that 800000-1.2 million tons of pulp will disappear from the market. The price of pulp has risen by about 45% this year due to the soaring cost of the energy intensive process of converting wood chips into cellulose cotton. Facing the difficulties of raw material supply, the competition is very fierce.

In addition to the shortage of wood in Russia, several unplanned factory shutdowns have also limited global supply.

At the beginning of 2022, in Finland, the second largest pulp producer in Europe, the strike of workers affected the production line for more than three months. The drought in Spain led the producer ENCE Energia y Celulosa to close its factory in Pontevedra in July. As for Brazil Suzano, the global leader in the industry, it closed a production line in Aracruz for nearly two months due to maintenance problems. Therefore, since the beginning of this year, the output of pulp has decreased by more than 1.4 million tons.

Rafael Bartholos, an analyst at Santander Bank, said that the tension in the pulp market is expected to last until the second half of 2023. In his view, only when the factories currently under construction in Chile and Uruguay start shipping next year will the price drop.

Stora Enso, a Finnish paper and packaging manufacturer, said that the company was forced to change its formula due to the Russian export ban. This makes the paper produced from the factory not only harder, but also softer and more expensive.

Producers have also been forced to cut spending because of the energy crisis in Europe. Mets Tissue, a Finnish toilet paper manufacturer, warned that it would cut production again, while Essity, a Swedish producer, announced higher prices and an energy surcharge.