After the festival, paper mills intensively issued a new round of price increase letters. The financial Associated Press reporter learned that the European and American paper supply chain crisis has triggered the transfer of some orders to China. Among the main types of paper, the export increment of white card is higher, and relevant manufacturers are expected to benefit. The demand increase superimposed on the cost pressure, and the paper mills’ willingness to continue to raise prices slightly is strong, but on the whole, the downstream is still mainly on the sidelines.

People interviewed by Zhejiang paper enterprises said that at present, the domestic paper industry has both long and short factors. The supply chain crisis in Europe and the United States has boosted the price of pulp, and domestic enterprises are facing greater cost pressure. However, the supply chain crisis also led to a supply gap in Europe and the United States, causing some orders to return to China. Some white cardboard manufacturers produced continuously during the Spring Festival, which also provided favorable conditions for this round of price increases after the festival.

1. European and American supply chain crisis: strike and shutdown continue

The financial Associated Press reporter learned that this round of European and American supply chain crisis began in November 2021.

At that time, the European paper giant UPM group was blasted and the negotiations with the paper workers’ Association were not smooth, which could lead to a strike. The latest foreign media report said that if the differences continue, this round of strike will continue until mid March this year. It is reported that the strike affected the production of UPM pulp, and the company was forced to adjust its supply chain, but did not disclose the specific losses.

Canada, another major producer of paper, is facing the problem of insufficient transportation capacity. In November 2021, the extreme weather caused the railway to shut down for a time, which forced the pulp mill of Canadian paper excellence to reduce production. This situation also continues to this day. On February 11, paper excellence announced a reduction in production due to insufficient transportation capacity and called on the railway to provide guarantee.

The above-mentioned paper enterprises told the financial associated press that the overseas supply chain problem has significantly boosted the export of white card paper. “Originally, the main producing areas of white card were China and Europe, mainly Western Europe and Northern Europe. However, due to various factors, the overall production capacity of these regions has decreased, which can only meet the needs of the region. The original supply areas need to turn to China for procurement, such as the Middle East, East Asia and South Asia, Even orders from southern Europe have flowed in, and China has undertaken most of the current international white cardboard orders. “

Benefiting from the improvement of overseas market demand, it is argued that the export logistics expenses of white cardboard are borne by overseas buyers. However, some people in paper enterprises hold different views on this. As an investor, the reporter of the financial Associated Press learned from Bohui paper that the white card market is still cost driven, and the so-called logistics expenses are borne by the buyer, which is also based on a lower quotation, which does not mean that the paper enterprises can have higher profits. The relevant person in charge also said that affected by the epidemic, the company’s white card is still dominated by the domestic market, with limited export growth.

Among the major manufacturers, Bohui paper, Chenming Paper and Wuzhou special paper white card have the highest production capacity, with 2.15 million tons, 2.05 million tons and 780000 tons respectively. In addition, 600000 tons of food card of Xianhe Co., Ltd. will be put into operation by the end of 2022.

2. Price rise of paper enterprises after the festival: cost driven, demand to be warmed up

As a major producer of pulp, the supply chain crisis in Europe and the United States has significantly affected the global pulp price. Taking the trend of pulp main company (sp9999) as an example, it has rebounded sharply since the bottom of November 2021, with an increase of more than 30% in the range.

Pulp prices rebounded strongly, adding cost pressures such as energy and chemical raw materials. Domestic paper enterprises started a round of price increases after the year.

According to Zhuo Chuang information data, the export of white cardboard has increased in recent months, and the domestic market began to rise after the festival, with a range of 200-300 yuan / ton. The overall supply of white cardboard is tight, and the domestic demand is expected to increase in the later stage, and the price increase is expected to be implemented gradually.

Among other kinds of paper, the manufacturers of double offset paper in cultural paper actively followed up the implementation of the price increase letter after the year, and there was a narrow follow-up in the downstream, and the market price increased by about 50-200 yuan / ton; The quotation of some manufacturers of carton board paper increased by 50-100 yuan / ton; The inventory pressure of large-scale whiteboard paper mills still exists, and some paper mills tentatively increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Facing the pressure of price rise, most downstream customers are in a wait-and-see state, and their actual documentary enthusiasm is limited.

Zhuo Chuang information analyst Liu Hui told the financial associated press that at present, box board paper mills are more wait-and-see, and small and medium-sized paper mills have not followed up with a large-scale rise. Downstream businesses are cautious and pessimistic about the future market. Some packaging factories say that the inventory can be maintained, the willingness to continue large-scale procurement is not high, and the replenishment space is also limited. Analyst pan Jingwen also said that the new single increment of whiteboard is limited, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. With the release of new production capacity, the market has insufficient power to rise in the short term, maintaining a slight shock consolidation.