Miles Cohen, an industry veteran and founder of circular ventures LLC, a consulting company, and Ryan Fox, a corrugated market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, estimated that the recycling rate of used corrugated boxes (OCC) in the United States was about 69%, far lower than the 91.4% reported by the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA) in May this year.

Miles Cohen and Ryan Fox presented their conclusions on the recovery rate method of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) at the 2022 Resource Recovery Conference held in Austin, Texas earlier last month. They estimated that the generation of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) in the United States was higher than that shown in the AF&PA data, mainly because a large number of cartons entered the United States for storing imported goods (import cartons were not considered in the AF&PA data), if import cartons were included. Then a larger denominator will be generated in the calculation of the recovery rate, resulting in a lower recovery rate.

Ryan Fox worked in the field of packaging sales for ten years before becoming a market analyst. Shortly before the meeting, he published some of his research on waste corrugated boxes (OCC) in Bloomberg’s green market publication. “For a long time, the corrugated paper industry has insisted that more than 90% of the cartons are recycled every year, but the real number seems to be much lower,” Fox wrote in the report. “As companies seek to position themselves as environment-friendly, acknowledging the deficiencies in recycling may prompt them to take specific measures to improve it, rather than repeating unfounded claims.”

The result of replacing the recovery rate method of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) means that the overall fiber recovery rate in the United States is lower than the previous estimate, because the recovery rate of mixed paper, old newspapers and other fiber streams is low, and waste corrugated boxes (OCC) tend to increase the cumulative fiber quantity. AF&PA data is widely referenced and relied on. For example, the US EPA uses AF&PA data to help calculate the national recovery and disposal rate, including how many waste corrugated boxes (OCC) are buried each year.

Ryan Fox pointed out that he was trapped at home for a long time due to the epidemic, which made him suspicious of AF&PA’s recycling rate of waste corrugated boxes (OCC). “I live in an apartment, and the dustbins in our community are always full of cartons. I began to wonder, what is it? If they say that 90% of the cartons are recycled, why is this dustbin always full of cartons?”

In his research, Ryan Fox explored the corrugated materials produced from the waste of carton production, and the waste corrugated boxes (OCC) produced in commercial and residential areas. He relies on reports from publicly traded retailers, analysis of recycling partnerships’ national recycling programs, state waste research, Bloomberg’s own data, and other sources. The 2020 report “Roadside Recycling Status” of the Recycling Partnership found that the lack of recycling channels, insufficient participation and pollution are reducing the number of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) recycled through roadside recycling systems.

At the same time, AF&PA found that the recovery rate of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) in 2021 was 2.6 percentage points higher than that in 2020. Fox wrote in the Bloomberg report: “We doubt whether the collection of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) has improved in the past decade, especially according to the roadside survey results of recycling partners.”

Ryan Fox pointed out that his alternative was to consider cartons containing overseas manufactured goods imported from the United States. He reasoned that AF&PA included these cartons in their recovery numerator, so they should also appear in the denominator or waste generated. As such, AF&PA acknowledges that its figures do not include cartons containing imported goods. For example, in the 2019 press release, it was reported that the recycling rate of used corrugated boxes (OCC) in 2018 was 96.4%. AF&PA wrote: “These specific cartons are not included in the recycling of used corrugated boxes (OCC) to calculate the recycling rate, because there is no reliable data on their number. If we take them into account, we estimate that the recycling rate of used corrugated boxes (OCC) will be several points lower than 96.4%.”

To determine the number of imported cartons, Ryan Fox cited a report from the National Retail Federation, which estimated that 25.8 million 20 foot equivalent unit containers (TEUs) would be imported into the United States for retail in 2021. His research shows that the largest importers include Wal Mart, Target, The Home Depot, Ashley Furniture, Lowe’s and other major retailers.

In order to estimate how many cartons are contained in these containers, Ryan Fox used Investopedia’s estimate. The company said that 75% of the world’s goods are transported in corrugated cartons. So he assumed that there were at least some cartons in 75% of import containers. In order to calculate the weight, he relied on his best guess of the average carton size and weight based on industry experience. Using these figures, he calculated that each standard box contained an average of 1742 pounds of corrugated material, which he rounded to 1500 pounds.

Assuming that each imported TEU contains 1500 pounds of cardboard boxes, about 15 million tons of cardboard boxes arrived at American ports last year. This figure is equivalent to 51.4 million tons of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) in the United States last year (AF&PA estimates that the total volume of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) in 2021 will be 38.5 million tons). Using the numerator and denominator of AF&PA, Ryan Fox estimated that the recovery rate of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) was 69.1%, 22.3 percentage points lower than the estimated value of AF&PA.

Miles Cohen was the second speaker of the Austin Conference. Previously, he was the president of the product recycling department of Pratt&Sonoco, a packaging manufacturer, and was mainly responsible for supervising the MRF network. Miles Cohen cautioned that his figures were only estimates, but they were the result of months of collecting tonnage data for used corrugated boxes (OCC).

“I think our data is very good because they are based on a lot of fine – grained data,” he said. His calculation supports AF&PA’s estimate that about 35.5 million tons of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) were recycled last year. However, he provided new details on the exact location of fiber formation. For example, his research shows that, although people have been talking about how the rise of e-commerce can transfer cardboard from the retail environment to the residential door, most of the generation and recycling of waste corrugated boxes (OCC) still come from the commercial and institutional environment. In 2021, about 92% of all waste corrugated boxes (OCC) recycled in the United States will come from commercial/industrial sources, and about 8% will come from households.

He estimates that supermarkets/supermarkets produce an average of about 14800 pounds of used corrugated boxes (OCC) per week. In contrast, the average household uses about 1 pound of used corrugated boxes (OCC) per week. Based on the newly developed denominator, Cohen and Fox estimate that by 2021, about 15.9 million tons will not be collected for recycling. Although they admit that some may be stored at home for storage in the basement or attic, or used as kindling in a fire, most of the weight is buried or burned in a waste incineration power plant. Miles Cohen also said that he and Ryan Fox conservatively estimated that the amount of waste corrugated box (OCC) landfill or incineration was 16 million tons, but it may be close to 20 million to 24 million tons.