The WTO has released the latest issue of the barometer of trade in goods. In the second quarter, Global trade in goods continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than that in the first quarter. It is estimated that the global trade in goods will increase by 3.0% in 2022, but there are many uncertainties.

The barometer of trade in goods is a comprehensive leading indicator of world trade. By collecting statistical data of trade in goods, it provides early signals on the current development trend and inflection point of world trade in goods, which is updated quarterly to match with the barometer of trade in services. The reading of the latest issue is 100, which is consistent with the benchmark value of the index, indicating that the growth of Global trade in goods is in line with the trend.

Tip: if the value exceeds 100, it indicates that the growth of Global trade in goods is higher than expected; if it is lower than 100, it indicates that it is lower than expected.

However, the overall barometer is still lower than the supporting index representing the actual volume of trade in goods, which indicates that the year-on-year trade growth may further slow down, but after the official statistics in the second quarter are released, the overall situation is still positive. Global trade was also boosted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and China’s lifting of the COVID-19 embargo.

According to earlier data, the overall volume of trade in goods tends to be stable. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3.2% in the first quarter of this year, which only partially reflects the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict that broke out in late February.

According to the WTO, the various components of the goods barometer are mixed, with most indexes showing trend growth or below trend growth. The forward-looking export order index (100.1) is in line with the trend, but has turned to decline. The automobile product index (99.0) is only slightly below the trend, but it has lost its upward momentum. The air transport index (96.9) and the electronic component index (95.6) are below the trend and point downward, while the raw material index (101.0) has recently been slightly above the trend. The main exception is the container transport index (103.2), which is firmly above the upward trend. Because with the relaxation of covid-19 prevention and control measures, shipments through Chinese ports have increased.

The latest barometer reading is in line with the WTO’s trade forecast in April last year, which predicts that the volume of world merchandise trade will grow by 3.0% in 2022. However, due to the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rising inflation pressure, and the expected tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the uncertainty surrounding this forecast has increased. The revised forecast will be released in early October.